Exact approximation of Rao-Blackwellised particle filters

Particle methods are a category of Monte Carlo algorithms that have become popular for performing inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. The class of 'Rao-Blackwellised' particle filters exploits the analytic marginalisation that is possible for some state- space models to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimates. Despite being applicable to only a restricted class of state-space models, such as conditionally linear Gaussian models, these algorithms have found numerous applications. In scenarios where no such analytical integration is possible, it has recently been proposed in Chen et al. [2011] to use 'local' particle filters to carry out this integration numerically. We propose here an alternative approach also relying on \local" particle filters which is more broadly applicable and has attractive theoretical properties. Proof-of-concept simulation results are presented

Is vitamin D deficiency a mechanistic driver of acute lung injury?

The acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the critically ill patient. There are no effective strategies for identifying those most at risk or therapeutic interventions proven to prevent its occurrence. Vitamin D deficiency is common and has important functions besides calcium homeostasis with profound effects on human immunity. Preliminary data suggests in the high-risk sepsis and oesophagectomy groups that vitamin D deficiency may be a pre-existing risk factor and mechanistic driver of ARDS. This thesis investigated in an animal model and in-vitro studies whether vitamin D influences the innate immune response to sepsis and resolution of neutrophilic injury. In addition, it reports a proof of concept phase II study to determine if vitamin D therapy in patients undergoing oesophagectomy is anti-inflammatory and protective of markers of lung injury. Vitamin D deficiency significantly increased the bacterial load, bacteraemia and translocation to the lung in a murine model of peritonitis. This was associated with a rise in tissue permeability locally and within the lung, reduced antimicrobial peptide and defective peritoneal macrophage phagocytosis. These data support pre-existing vitamin D deficiency as a determinant of the severity of bacteraemic sepsis. In-vivo high dose vitamin D supplementation was a safe, well-tolerated preoperative intervention with reduced biomarkers of alveolar oedema, capillary leak and macrophage efferocytosis. In-vitro culture with vitamin D increased macrophage efferocytosis and promoted monocyte differentiation to a pro-resolution phenotype. This suggests a potential mechanism for vitamin D on protecting barrier integrity and resolution of neutrophilic inflammation, a hallmark of ARDS. This body of work demonstrates that vitamin D deficiency is a potential modifiable risk factor and should be identified and treated in patients at risk of sepsis and ARDS. Larger trials powered to evaluate the effect of vitamin D on preventing and improving clinical outcomes in sepsis and ARDS are warranted

Sepsis induces a dysregulated neutrophil phenotype that is associated with increased mortality

Background. Neutrophil dysfunction in sepsis has been implicated in the pathogenesis of multiorgan failure; however, the role of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the sequential changes in ex vivo NETosis and its relationship with mortality in patients with sepsis and severe sepsis. Methods. This was a prospective observational cohort study enrolling 21 healthy age-matched controls and 39 sepsis and 60 severe sepsis patients from acute admissions to two UK hospitals. Patients had sequential bloods for the ex vivo assessment of NETosis in response to phorbol-myristate acetate (PMA) using a fluorometric technique and chemotaxis using time-lapse video microscopy. Continuous data was tested for normality, with appropriate parametric and nonparametric tests, whilst categorical data was analysed using a chi-squared test. Correlations were performed using Spearman’s rho. Results. Ex vivo NETosis was reduced in patients with severe sepsis, compared to patients with sepsis and controls (p=0.002). PMA NETosis from patients with septic shock was reduced further (p<0.001) compared to controls. The degree of metabolic acidosis correlated with reduced NETosis (p<0.001), and this was replicated when neutrophils from healthy donors were incubated in acidotic media. Reduced NETosis at baseline was associated with an increased 30-day (p=0.002) and 90-day mortality (p=0.014) in sepsis patients. These findings were accompanied by defects in neutrophil migration and delayed apoptosis. Resolution of sepsis was not associated with the return to baseline levels of NETosis or migration. Conclusions. Sepsis induces significant changes in neutrophil function with the degree of dysfunction corresponding to the severity of the septic insult which persists beyond physiological recovery from sepsis. The changes induced lead to the failure to effectively contain and eliminate the invading pathogens and contribute to sepsis-induced immunosuppression. For the first time, we demonstrate that reduced ex vivo NETosis is associated with poorer outcomes from sepsis

Vitamin D and critical illness:what endocrinology can learn from intensive care and vice versa.

The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in intensive care units ranges typically between 40 and 70%. There are many reasons for being or becoming deficient in the ICU. Hepatic, parathyroid and renal dysfunction additionally increases the risk for developing vitamin D deficiency. Moreover, therapeutic interventions like fluid resuscitation, dialysis, surgery, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, cardiopulmonary bypass and plasma exchange may significantly reduce vitamin D levels. Many observational studies have consistently shown an association between low vitamin D levels and poor clinical outcomes in critically ill adults and children, including excess mortality and morbidity such as acute kidney injury, acute respiratory failure, duration of mechanical ventilation and sepsis. It is biologically plausible that vitamin D deficiency is an important and modifiable contributor to poor prognosis during and after critical illness. Although vitamin D supplementation is inexpensive, simple and has an excellent safety profile, testing for and treating vitamin D deficiency is currently not routinely performed. Overall, less than 800 patients have been included in RCTs worldwide, but the available data suggest that high-dose vitamin D supplementation could be beneficial. Two large RCTs in Europe and the United States, together aiming to recruit >5000 patients, have started in 2017, and will greatly improve our knowledge in this field. This review aims to summarize current knowledge in this interdisciplinary topic and give an outlook on its highly dynamic future

Raised FGF23 Correlates to Increased Mortality in Critical Illness, Independent of Vitamin D

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF23) is an endocrine hormone classically associated with the homeostasis of vitamin D, phosphate, and calcium. Elevated serum FGF23 is a known independent risk factor for mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. We aimed to determine if there was a similar relationship between FGF23 levels and mortality in critically ill patients.METHODS: Plasma FGF23 levels were measured by ELISA in two separate cohorts of patients receiving vitamin D supplementation: critical illness patients (VITdAL-ICU trial, n = 475) and elective oesophagectomy patients (VINDALOO trial, n = 76). Mortality data were recorded at 30 and 180 days or at two years, respectively. FGF23 levels in a healthy control cohort were also measured ( n = 27). RESULTS: Elevated FGF23 (quartile 4 vs. quartiles 1-3) was associated with increased short-term (30 and 180 day) mortality in critical illness patients ( p &lt; 0.001) and long-term (two-year) mortality in oesophagectomy patients ( p = 0.0149). Patients who died had significantly higher FGF23 levels than those who survived: In the critical illness cohort, those who died had 1194.6 pg/mL (range 0-14,000), while those who survived had 120.4 pg/mL (range = 15-14,000) ( p = 0.0462). In the oesophagectomy cohort, those who died had 1304 pg/mL (range = 154-77,800), while those who survived had 644 pg/mL (range = 179-54,894) ( p &lt; 0.001). This was found to be independent of vitamin D or CKD status (critical illness p = 0.3507; oesophagectomy p = 0.3800). FGF23 levels in healthy controls were similar to those seen in oesophagectomy patients ( p = 0.4802). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated baseline serum FGF23 is correlated with increased mortality in both the post-oesophagectomy cohort and the cohort of patients with critical illness requiring intensive care admission. This was independent of vitamin D status, supplementation, or CKD status, which suggests the presence of vitamin D-independent mechanisms of FGF23 action during the acute and convalescent stages of critical illness, warranting further investigation.</p

Simvastatin to modify neutrophil function in older patients with septic pneumonia (SNOOPI) : study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is considered the leading cause of death from infectious disease in developed countries, while complications of CAP - sepsis being the most common and challenging - increase the risk of mortality. During the progression of sepsis, a state of neutrophil ‘paralysis’ develops resulting in the impairment of neutrophil anti-microbial functions including: chemotaxis, production of reactive oxygen species, and formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Mechanisms underlying defective neutrophil function remain elusive although NET formation has been implicated in the immunosuppression and increased rates of sepsis observed in neonates. There is, however, increasing evidence that statins are able to modulate neutrophil function in sepsis as several systematic reviews have concluded that statins have a role in improving infection-related outcomes and mortality while, in vitro, statins have also been shown to boost NET formation in healthy individuals. METHODS/DESIGN: The ‘SNOOPI’ trial is a phase 4, randomised placebo-controlled trial. The aim of this study is to determine whether oral treatment with simvastatin compared to placebo optimises neutrophil anti-microbial functions in elderly patients with septic pneumonia improving patient outcomes in the elderly. The primary outcome will be NET production within 72 to 96 hours of treatment with simvastatin or placebo measured in response to a number of inflammatory mediators, including IL8, f-Met-Leu-Phe and lipopolysaccharide. Secondary outcomes include neutrophil migratory capacity; reactive oxygen species production; neutrophil phagocytic capacity; safety and tolerability of simvastatin administration within this patient group; biological markers of neutrophil activation, the inflammatory response, alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury; systemic endothelial function biomarkers and pulmonary extracellular matrix degradation. This study aims to recruit 60 patients admitted into Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham NHS-Foundation Trust. DISCUSSION: This study will investigate the ability of in vivo simvastatin therapy to modulate neutrophil anti-microbial functions in CAP-associated sepsis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number: 2012-003343-29 (Trial Registered: 26 November 2012). ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1745-6215-15-332) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users